Mock NFL drafts get us through the doldrums of spring, especially without any other sports this year. Here’s how the top 10 will go down in 3 days without trades factored in:
– The Bengals nab QB Joe Burrow #1 overall to replace the Red Rifle as the face of the franchise. The pick is so obvious the books have this at -100,000 to bet. For the record I don’t recommend putting money here. Never mind that this is the wrong pick for the franchise. Fact: 14 of 28 QB’s drafted in the top 5 since 1999 have losing records overall. Fact: only 4 have career winning % greater than .600. Fact: Only 1 has won a Super Bowl (Eli Manning x2–was he the real reason they won??) 20 years of data proves that if you wanna sell tickets short term and draft another QB in first round 5 years later, go ahead and take the QB. Don’t get me wrong, I love Burrow’s makeup, his competitiveness, and his drive, but it just is not the best thing to do if you are trying to win Super Bowls. The Bengals aren’t doing so, so its a good fit.
– With the second overall pick the Redskins solidify their Defensive line for years to come by taking top overall prospect and all around beast, DE Chase Young. Honestly, if the Redskins get a load of picks, they should trade, but Dan Snyder has never really come out on top on any trade in recent memory. Defensive Coordinator Jack Del Rio is converting to a 4-3 from the 3-4 look and pairing Young with Montez Sweat to bookend that D-line is the prudent move. Again, not good odds here as Young is a -3000 favorite to wind up the selection at 2.
– Here is where the draft will really start Thursday night. The Lions are dying to move back from the #3 position to pick up some extra picks as it is probably too soon to draft their best fit. If they are unable to strike a deal to move back, CB Jeff Okudah is the pick. (+125 favorite). Okudah is a high character leader who can fit in with Matt Patricia’s culture this year, then adapt to his new coach’s framework when Belichek’s disciple is inevitably fired. That’s what happens when someone other the Bill Belichek tries to run a team like Bill Belichek. Okudah immediately fills in as the #1 CB with Darius Slay traded to the Eagles.
– The New York Giants will also be looking to trade back from the #4 slot here. Leaking info about doing diligence on Herbert a year after drafting Daniel Jones? Clever move guys….. Anyways, I truly believe the Giants are looking to move back (Jaguars anyone) where they can take a play maker like WRs Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb. In the end, they will be too greedy and have to make a selection. The odds show OT Jedrick Wills as the favorite at -175. In the end, they will go with OT Tristan Wirfs (+350) out of Iowa to protect Danny Boy’s blindside for the next decade. Its too bad the fans won’t be here to boo the pick because Giant Fans are like that, but this will prove to be a fruitful selection for the G-Men for years to come.
– Here it is, the team that was supposed to tank for Tua, forgot they were supposed to lose at the end of the year and finish in the #5 overall slot. The Dolphins select…. QB Justin Herbert….what? Shows what a difference a year can make. Herbert has all the measurables and the arm strength needed to be the next Top 5 QB to lead his team to a losing record…but he won’t. The Dolphins have quietly had a very nice off-season, collecting talent on the defensive side of the ball and should be in line for tremendous growth this season. Josh Rosen clearly is not the answer and Fitzmagic usually only last for a month or so, so Herbert has the ability to step in and compete in a suddenly open AFC East. Herbert’s O/U is 5.5 and so Vegas knows whats going on here.
– The Las Angeles Chargers are up 6th and refuse to succumb to the Giants and Lions greedy trade demands. Everyone has them going QB here which is why they will inevitably choose OT Jedrick Wills. The Chargers genuinely seem ready to give the Tyrod Taylor experiment the ole freshman try as they have brought in replacements to massively upgrade the OL. They also have a talented young defense that is ready to blossom. Adding a ready to roll LT will give them a chance to compete this year. Perhaps they wake up next season and see Taylor is like that girl you brought home due to the beer goggles, they could be in position to land Trevor Lawrence next year.
– First-year HC Matt Rhule suffered his biggest professional loss already when All-Pro LB Luke Kuechly decided to hang up his cleat early. While not the same player, LB Isaiah Simmons will be a huge boost to Carolina’s D. Playing against offenses like ATL, NO, and now TB will mean an athletic LB is crucial to not getting curb-stomped 6 times a year. I believe the bust potential is rather high for this pick, however if I’m wrong Simmons could usher in a new era of LBs in the pass-happy NFL. The more I think about this pick, the more I am certain that this is the selection for Carolina at #7.
– The Cardinals are fresh off bending over Houston to procure the best all around WR in the league in his prime for an overpaid RB and a second round pick. Now they have the second best defensive player fall right into their lap at #8 and rush to select DL Derrick Brown out of Auburn. Make no mistake, this will be the fastest selection of the night barring any dial-up issues in the dessert. Sure, Brown’s combine was not a thing of beauty, but his game tape is superb against top talent and will be a difference maker for years to come. Kliff Kingsbury sure is loving life right now.
– The Jaguars are sitting with the #9 selection and have been shipping out established talent all off-season. Even now, their top two players, RB Leonard Fournette and DE Yannick Ngakoue are available for trade. If not for Bill O’Brien’s gross incompetence in Houston, Jacksonville would be crushed as the worst run organization this spring. So it begs to question if they are starting the “Suck for Lawrence” bandwagon early? Maybe, but the ‘Stache has proven he is nothing more than Doug Flutie, capable of a good story from time to time, but not the pretty girl you want to fall asleep with every night. QB Tua Tagovailoa gives the fan base something to be excited about and starts the rebuild a year early.
– With the 10th selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Browns are looking to make an impact. I believe where there is smoke, there is fire and they could be looking to move on from OBJ in order to form that Sooner connection between QB Baker Mayfield and WR CeeDee Lamb. It would be a great fit and give their (supposed) franchise QB a young weapon to grow with. However, the Browns are the Browns and will not be able to see the long term benefits of this type of move and will select something for their immediate OL need. OT Andrew Thomas is the most boring mock selection I have seen here in the pre-draft process, but he is a solid Line prospect. Cleveland’s front office have actually made some pretty solid moves this off-season topped y bringing in Jack Conklin to man the RT spot. Thomas has great tape from his time at Georgia and could actually work. Shit, now I am talking like those damn Browns fans….
Check out tomorrow as we dive into picks 11-21.